Selecting for Success: How the 2025 Corn Crop Shapes Decisions for 2026
Good day and welcome to the University Minnesota CropCast. I'm your host Dave Nicolai, University Minnesota Extension Educator in Field Crops. I'm here today along with my cohost Doctor. Seth Nave. Seth is University of Minnesota Extension soybean specialist and Seth we have a special guest for our podcast today, Doctor.
Speaker 1:Jeff Coulter. Jeff is University of Minnesota Extension corn specialist here in Minnesota and it's good opportunity I guess Seth to talk about this year in 2025 and how our corn crop went.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I think it's it's even though I've kinda feel like now that the weather is changing and we've got a shift in our mentality towards holiday seasons, I think it's still worth talking about the season, especially our second topic's going to be a little bit about variety selection. So my pet is always to talk about what we know and what we learn from this year before we move on. So I'd like to hear from Jeff a little bit about the corn crop this year and how things turned out and just kind of go through the season. You know, I have my views on what made or didn't make soybeans, and so I'm kind of interested to hear, or I'm very interested to hear from Jeff about what where the corn yields came from this year.
Speaker 2:So Jeff, walk walk us through a little bit. Start let's start with the spring. What what happened this spring?
Speaker 3:Yeah. Sure. So this spring, we started out with a real early planting window. Mid April, some farmers planted a few acres and but then it got kinda wet and cold for a while. And then once it did dry out again, we had a nice long extended window to get the rest of the crop planted in record speed and for both corn and soybean.
Speaker 3:And then we just kinda moved on to the growing season, and we had pretty much ideal moisture and temperature throughout the season. It was pretty good. There was an area between Clara City and Wilmer that just got too much rain this year, and they had ponding, lots of issues with excess water mid season there in July. So that area was definitely hurt with yields, but for the rest of the area, we pretty much had ideal moisture and temperatures for most of the season. Then we got to August and we did have a period of unusually cool weather in August, which I think slowed down the rate of grain fill and probably put the plants to thinking about moving to maturity.
Speaker 3:And then then it warmed up again, and we had a nice extended fall, but it was quite dry. And in September, we did have some unusually warm days. So I think the combination of the cooler weather in early August coupled with the hot temperatures in September and a dry fall basically, a dry dry during the grain filling period, I think hastened maturity and, you know, maybe took the top off of the yield, maybe resulted in kernels that weren't quite filled as much as they nor as they could have been, but even with all this, we had a really good year. Most farmers were very pleased, averages in the low 200 bushels an acre or so, many fields going two forty bushels an acre. It was it was generally a good year, but it was also a year of diseases that we haven't seen a lot of.
Speaker 3:We had a lot of southern rust, we also had northern corn leaf blight, and others. And so we did have some reports this year that yield responses due to fungicide applications were more consistent than in previous years, and I think a lot of that depended based on geography, whereas there was more disease pressure in Southern, the Far South, Far Southern Minnesota compared to Central And Northern Minnesota. So, you know, we had our issues this year, but generally people were quite pleased.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I think just kind of just backing up a little bit, it was kind of an odd year because it seems like in Minnesota we have such a big geography and we kind of, we've got a lot of soil types from the Southeast through the Southwest and up to the Northwest. And we just have, it seems like the weather patterns are different, and we're always, this time of year we're always talking about, okay, well this happened in Northwest, and this happened in South Central. And besides this really excessive water that we had kind of in West Central, we had more of a homogeneous kind of a year. And I think part of it may be that the rains tended to be a little bit more measured this year.
Speaker 2:I think when I was looking at some weather data from a couple locations, it seemed like we just had quite a few of these, you know, weeks where we had a couple inches of rain and then, you know, but just didn't get didn't see as many big blanks in the weather. And then, you know, six inch rainfalls, except this thing again that you mentioned kind of towards the August, August when things kinda got pretty dry around here.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Absolutely.
Speaker 2:So it's kind of, it's hard to talk about averages when we, you know, farmers don't, they see the average. They see what's happening on their farm. And so it's kind of an academic point when we talk about what happened in the state, because there's, you know, there's nothing, there's no average farm around the state. And so I think what we're kind of trying to do is just kind of get ahead around kind of what overall is going on out there this year. But I'm sure there's, we have individual farmers that had significant drought, and we had other farmers that were underwater all year too.
Speaker 2:So yeah, so let's think back through this just a little bit. You know, the disease thing, I think let's talk about the disease portion of this a bit. I think that's a pretty provocative topic. There's a lot of folks talked about all the corn diseases. So southern rust was the big one for this year that people hadn't seen.
Speaker 2:Is that right?
Speaker 3:Yes.
Speaker 2:And so what when how much Southern rust had we had before this year come up? I don't remember any discussions. Is this is this basically new that we this is kind of one of the first year we've seen this blow up into Minnesota?
Speaker 3:I think it's been like a decade since it's been in Minnesota at any noticeable levels. I mean, I talked to agronomists who've been in the field for, you know, their whole life, basically, and, you know, they're telling me this is the worst that they've ever seen it.
Speaker 2:And this is all based on just building inoculum in southern states. And more inoculum coupled with kind of southern winds is what brings this thing up. So have to have the disease somewhere else, and then you have to have it relocate into Minnesota. Is that right?
Speaker 3:Yeah, that's correct.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so this isn't something that we'd have to plan on necessarily for next year, but it's something to be aware of, right?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I think so. The odds of it being like this again next year are probably low. I'm not a pathologist, but, you know, I think it's it just shows us that, you know, we need to be aware of some of these diseases and we're not immune to them. So, you know, we can we can take that into account and just I think scouting is the main thing.
Speaker 3:You know, at this point, when we go to look at the seed catalogs, they don't have ratings for southern rust. So, you know, that's kind of an issue. It's it's just kind of about and maybe they will in the next few years, but I think at this point, it's just about being observant, scouting, recognizing what's going on, and then making sound decisions in season. But I mean obviously if we could choose hybrids that are resistant to diseases that have some sort of tolerance or resistance, then that is going to, you know, minimize the effects on the crop and give us a little more cushion with regards to the in season management.
Speaker 1:I think you brought up a good point, Jeff. I know recently we had Doctor. Dean Melvik on with a crop cast and he said, well don't forget about the other diseases. And we were talking about that before we started today, things like northern corn leaf blight and Goss's and so forth. But you've observed some of that in as well.
Speaker 1:Some of these are respond, you can respond with a fungicide, others like Goss's are not, they're bacterial based and you have to you can probably find some types of tolerance in corn hybrids, but it's important to remember those as well, isn't it?
Speaker 3:Yeah, absolutely. Like as an example, this year I was at Waseca, Minnesota, it was I think in August or something. And one field I noticed very distinct northern corn leaf blight lesions on the plant, you know, the big cigar like lesions taking up big chunks of the leaves. And I went right next right across the alley to the next field. It was a different hybrid, same crop stage, and no northern corn leaf blight.
Speaker 3:So the, you know, the disease tolerance is a big deal in terms of the hybrids.
Speaker 1:You mentioned before you had some observations on Waseca. I don't know if we've talked a little bit about some of the yields that we had around the state. What were some of the yields that you heard that were actually were measured yields?
Speaker 3:So at Waseca, we had one field that was in the two thirty to two forty bushel an acre range. It was planted, I think, early May. We had another field that was planted around May 12, May 13, and for some reason, that planting date, the crop stage, it just had tended to be such that we had a big wind event that went through South Central Minnesota on the evening of July 29, and that caused a lot of green snap in that corn. It was I think it was just right around that silking stage when that happened. So it was pretty detrimental to that field, but then other fields that were planted earlier, the crop stage was a little later and the plants were more lignified and a little more resistant to that greensnap injury.
Speaker 3:So in that field where we had the greensnap, we had probably 10% of the plants damaged and the yield on that field was only a 165 bushels an acre, which was very disappointing. So I guess, know, certain things like that we can't control, but I guess that just goes to show how big of a a range there can be in yields. But I think most of the farmers, you know, were having, you know, farm averages of over 200 bushels an acre for their corn.
Speaker 2:So what do you do you think about this kind of cool snap that we had in combination with some dry weather late? How how do you think they played out on on the corn side with with corn yields this year? What what did that cool snap? It seemed like we had about a week of really unusually cold weather, and I know there was a couple nights that were really cold.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, I don't know that it really hurt the corn much. It was just, you know, we lost about a week there where we could have had photosynthesis operating at a high level. We could have been filling the grain at a fast rate, and instead it just really slowed down significantly. So we probably lost half a week at least in of good grain filling conditions just due to cold temperatures.
Speaker 3:And then I think that but I think more significantly is that dry and hot temperatures in late August, September, I think that kind of hurt us more. You know, we had this nice extended fall to really fill the kernels, and we just had, you know, hot and dry conditions that, you know, sped maturity up. So probably just took the, you know, we had a very high yield potential, and we probably didn't reach it because of those things. But, you know, overall, I think people were pretty pleased.
Speaker 2:Well, this goes back to the basic crop physiology for me. And this is, you know, my major professor was a crop physiologist. He really, you know, like a lot of professors, he talked about the stuff that he studied a lot and really believed in those things. But one of the things that I remember in taking away from what he told me in his coursework was that, you know, a lot of this is about those lost days. And I kind of think we forget about this, but you bring this up.
Speaker 2:I think it's a really important thing, is if we have a week right during a critical time of yield development in corn, and we get kind of basically shut out because of cool temperatures, and if that plant really does go down to 20% function or something like that, and it just isn't doing anything for a week during right in the prime period, you could imagine that that's a pretty big chunk of your yield potential if you think about the total light accumulation and conversion into, you know, into sucrose and energies in the plant, that you could basically account for, you know, 20 bushels of yield in corn crop, or 10 bushels at the very least just from having, you know, a few days of abnormally cool temperatures. So I really appreciate you bringing up that point. I think it's an important one.
Speaker 3:Yeah, absolutely. You know, we probably got like forty five days of grain fill in corn, so if we lost five of those days, you know, that's a, you know, almost 10% or more Yep, of your yield for
Speaker 2:sure. So it's right off the top. And I think oftentimes we kind of forget about it because we always have some kind of weird weather, and this has come about more recently. There's all this talk about smoke and things that we get from Canada. There's a lot of Alawis, a lot of discussion about it.
Speaker 2:But I think the temperatures can play a bigger role. I know they play a big role in soybean because they really screw up a soybean plant in a big way.
Speaker 1:In terms of fertility, any observations that you had in terms of did our corn crop this year, in your observations, have enough nitrogen? Did we run out? Did we have enough going into the fall? What are your thoughts?
Speaker 3:Yeah. So this year, nitrogen deficiency wasn't a big issue. The plants were green almost to the ground for a lot of the year. They looked really good. So, you know, I think it was a great year for managing nitrogen.
Speaker 3:We the crop looked good. Other than, you know, West Central Minnesota that just got so much rainfall and had the ponding, they were seeing yellow corn in July. But for the rest of the state, it was pretty good.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, you're used to drive I'm used to driving around Minnesota, and just the variation that we have in soil types and soil textures and well drained tiled land versus not. It's pretty stark middle of the summer seeing some of the corn and the variation you see. And so this year I did notice this, that this is one year we just had much more uniform looking corn everywhere.
Speaker 1:Mhmm. Well, know, Jeff, now is the time of the year when growers have opportunities or faced with the ability to order in their inputs for next year in terms of whether they're bundling together seed, other products as well. But certainly there are incentives, there's other implications on a farm business standpoint to do some business here before the first of the year for a number of reasons. Any thoughts that you might have looking forward here to 2026? I know that we just have a short year here of 2025 looking back but general trends in terms of selecting some of your seed sources hybrids and obviously you can look at spreading your risk in early and mid season and late season.
Speaker 1:Thoughts about that going into next year and just general pulling your yield out and making comparisons of making selections here.
Speaker 3:Yeah. So, you know, most people have got their seed ordered for the coming year, but many of them can switch out the hybrids for different ones, you know, so we do have time to look at some of the yield results and see how the ones the hybrids that we chose fared. You know, typically we want to try to pull independent, unbiased yield trial information from a number of locations near to where you're farming that are in a somewhat similar growing growing region. And you know, so we have the Minnesota corn grower trials, we have the first plots, and there's also the yield trials from the companies as well. Typically, what we're looking for is we want to find hybrids that are like consistently top performers among multiple trials.
Speaker 3:Say, they're within the the yields of the hybrids that you're interested in are within the top 20% of a number of trials. You know, that's a hybrid that is gonna be consistent, it has a high likelihood of performing well next year, You know, that's that's kind of the best we can do is look for that consistency. Obviously, having also being able to find that consistency over multiple years is good, but, know, with the turnover that we have in hybrids today, it's more difficult to find, you know, multi year results for the same hybrid. Typically, what I like to tell growers is, you know, when they're looking to select hybrids for the coming year, try to select about 50% of your hybrids that you've got two years of information on, select 25% of your hybrids that you just have one year of information on, and then select 25% of your hybrids that you that are just brand new, that you haven't that haven't been in trials yet. And the reason is is because the rate of genetic yield improvement in corn is about one and a half bushels per acre per year.
Speaker 3:So what that means is if we take the yield of all of the brand new hybrids and we compare that to for this this year and we compare that to the yield of all of the brand new hybrids that came out one year ago, on average over time that yield bumps up one and a half bushels per acre per year. So it's in our best interest to try to be choosing the newest ones, but at the same time we have limited information on them. So even though they're new and they should theoretically have a higher yield potential, there's more variability in what the yield can be and oftentimes we don't have a lot of yield data to back those ones up. So we need to be a little cautious on choosing those because we do know that oftentimes hybrids are tested and after that first year if they have certain characteristics or performance flaws, they may be dropped. So for example, there was a hybrid I was working with say ten years ago and it just came out.
Speaker 3:It was doing supposed to do really well and 10% of the plants dropped their ears right before harvest for no apparent reason, and they pulled that hybrid and the next year it wasn't available. So things like that do happen, and that's why we need to be a little bit cautious on that. But, you know, we do need to be kind of moving forward and trying to stay current.
Speaker 2:I bet a year like this where we have a lot of, you know, farmers got bit by some of these diseases, especially the southern rust that really got some people, but some other things as well, if that might push some of these decisions too. I think there could be some farmers that are getting pretty gun shy of some of these varieties and maybe more concerned about the risk, especially in a really tight economic environment. So it'd be interesting to know, you know, from those seed company folks how the buying decisions change, not just specific varieties, but how farmers change their buying decisions. And I bet I bet there's some pretty significant changes.
Speaker 1:You know, one thing that's fairly new here in the last couple of years and that's the short statured hybrids in the corn. Any thoughts on that in terms of how that's played out in the marketplace and where we might see that in the future?
Speaker 3:Yeah. So I mean up to this point, you know, there's been some sorts short statured hybrids available. The yield has been quite good. Maybe not quite as good as the standard hybrids, but getting close. The big limitation though has been the ear height.
Speaker 3:The ear height is just short and in some cases on the droughty knolls and stuff, the ear height is just too low for harvest. So that's been a big challenge. New this year, we've got there's new hybrids coming for 2026 that should have this ear height issue resolved. So I think there's a lot of people excited to try those. You know, obviously, one of the advantages of the short stature corn is the ability to, you know, resist some of the lodging simply because it's got a shorter height, but also it's stockier plants.
Speaker 3:The stocks are noticeably bigger. It's it's just a totally different stature of plant. In addition, it the nodes are or the internodes are shorter, so it does extend the window for some in season applications. Things like in season nitrogen or, you know, that's probably the big one. Obviously, it would make in season fungicide applications easier.
Speaker 3:And then I think the other big thing is for dairy production. So, you know, we're looking at probably losing BMR corn here in the coming future, and I think short corn could be a good alternative for that. Short corn has that fixed stock, so the ratio of pith or internal part of that stock compared to the rind is different. Right? Short corn's got more pith and and less rind.
Speaker 3:That's gonna help its quality. It's got the same number of leaves, generally a little shorter stalk. So I think there's a lot of people in the corn silage industry that could be looking at short stature corn in the coming years.
Speaker 2:Nice. So so far through '26, is this all from Bayer? Is the Corteva lines, are those available yet?
Speaker 3:Yeah. My understanding is, well, we have Bayer, which has new hybrids coming for 2026, and I believe those have the ear height issue kind of resolved. And there's a lot more options out there now with a large number of relative maturities available. Also, we have a Steinseed of Iowa, and a substantial proportion of the hybrids that are released by Stein are already short stature. So and that's been going on for a while.
Speaker 3:So, you know, those are probably the two main ones right now that are available. And, yeah, I'm not up to speed on what Corteva's situation is, but I don't think they're they're ready yet. I think that's a few years out.
Speaker 2:What about, and I don't want to put you on the spot because these things these things are so fast moving and I can't keep track of any of them, but other traits in corn, or is there anything else available? Either genetic traits in terms of insect resistance that folks are talking about that are people excited about, or any other genetic traits that might be those, you know, those triggers for people to either select a variety or stay away from it?
Speaker 3:Yeah. Well, I mean, we're going on the insect resistance side of things, there are new combinations of above ground or below ground traits. I just read a a news article this morning. Corteva was mentioning, I think they have four above ground traits now, including one for black cutworm. So, you know, so we there's there's lots of things going on in the trait world, and it gets complicated when you're we're thinking about above ground or below ground, and then start thinking about the herbicides too.
Speaker 3:So it's it's kinda like one of those situations where you need to make a table and kinda write it out and clearly try to follow what's going on. And then, you know, we have the RNAi for insect control as well. So there's a lot of lot of things going on. One thing that we've noticed in corn, not so much this year is that but in the year before was that corn rootworm is a significant pest and, you know, some of the the hybrid trait combinations that had worked good for a number of years were breaking down in 2024. And when we went into the 2025 season here, we had to try something new, a different trait package, for example, just to make sure we're getting control.
Speaker 3:So and this these are in fields where, you know, have been corn intensive fields, not strict continuous corn, but there's been a lot of corn in there, maybe two thirds of the years. So definitely it's important to, you know, stay ahead of your pests.
Speaker 2:But again, pet here is that farmers really need to know what's important to them to begin with, right, And understand what their pests are limiting, where their pests are limiting yields and what those pests are. And then make decisions based on that. I think we're in a really heavy marketing world, and you know, with consolidation and loyalty programs, farmers are buying from, you know, one or a small number of companies. And so they basically are getting a lot of information from, you know, one representative. And so I just, my personal feeling is that I'd urge people to really, really do their homework and understand what they need before they start into the, you know, marketing process.
Speaker 2:I know we're already in November here, so we're probably way into the marketing process for farmers, but it's just I think it's it's part of the the the psychology I'd like to see them follow.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, yeah, with the commodity prices as they are and looking at the input costs, we need to be thinking smart about how we spend the money for the input costs. And, yeah, it comes down to knowing what's there and, you know, why why buy protection for something that you don't need. It's just unnecessary.
Speaker 2:So one other topic here is is that I know is kind of dear to you is this whole question about nitrogen. And so what is there anything new besides just a general tight market, tight environment for finances on farm. You know, what are you seeing and are hearing from farmers about sources of nitrogen or forms and timings? And is there anything you see that's a change out there for this year and how farmers are gonna handle their nitrogen for next year?
Speaker 3:Well, I don't think a lot has changed. It's kind of the same old things that keep resurfacing. For example, you know, there's a large number of farmers in Western Minnesota and even kinda moving into the South Central Minnesota that use fall applied ammonia. And I was getting questions about fall applied ammonia back when it was warm out, you know. It was like 60 degrees out and they're ready to go in a couple days and it's like, well guys, you know, we need to have six inch soil temperature at at or below 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
Speaker 3:So I think it comes down to nitrogen management, comes down to some of the key principles like that. You know, I think there's always frustration with regards to the price of of nitrogen and fertilizers with respect to the crop prices now. It seems like kind of somewhat of a disconnect and, yeah. I mean, it was a good year for managing nitrogen. I mean, for this year, basically, anything worked.
Speaker 3:We had a lot of mineralization out there, and the crop looked good. Very consistent green color from fence row to fence row. But, you know, is that gonna is that gonna hold forth in the coming years? You know, not every year. So we we probably need to be thinking about, you know, using good practices, and hopefully, these extreme wet years are not gonna be the norm.
Speaker 3:So, you know, I think it comes down to, you know, using best practices, applying closer to when the crop needs it, considering side dressing, split applications, those type of things.
Speaker 2:For sure, I think that's, you know, that's one thing I've been thinking about with farmers is just intensifying their management. The economics are tight, you know, we know that some increased management has opportunity to help save them some dollars. So there might be a time for them to put a little extra time and effort into some of that management. But corn prices haven't changed probably relative to nitrogen rates that much over the past couple years, but I guess farmers should still look at economic optimum nitrogen rates for their corn. Is that right?
Speaker 3:Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one thing that I've been kind of amazed at is when I look, kinda observe what's going on, it seems to me that most farmers are still managing for near maximum yield even though the economics have shifted that the grain price is substantially lower than what it was not too long ago, and the inputs have stayed the same or went up. So, you know, I think when we think about where can we cut costs, well everybody thinks there's nowhere to cut, but I think we can look at it and I think a good place to start is looking at the what we're doing for fertilization. You know, the University of Minnesota Extension fertilizer guidelines are a really good place to start. Often the fertilizer rates that are recommended are not as high as you're going to get from when you go to the co op or working with crop consultants maybe, but the you're probably going to get almost the same yield, and the guidelines are based on a lot of infield trials done by Dan Kaiser and the soils crew over several locations in several years.
Speaker 3:So I think as we get pinched here in these economic times, it's time to maybe reconsider where are we, what are we doing for inputs, and do we really need all of this, and can we start to think about ways to cut a little bit, and the furth the easiest way to cut is to look at the U of M fertilizer guidelines and think about, you know, the rates.
Speaker 2:Yep, for sure. I think that farmers have been more liberal with those, and I think farmers tend, in general, to stick with what's worked with them, and even when the economic environment changes around them. So I think that's I think you bring up a really good point. I think there's probably a lot of farmers have a lot of room to to cut a little bit. So, hey, you asked us not to talk about this, but we're going to go ahead and give you a little congratulations here for a recent award.
Speaker 2:You were just at the American, or Agronomy Society of America meetings, and you're bestowed upon was the Fellow Award. So it's quite a prestigious award, and I know you're probably not want to chat about it too much, but it's a very small percentage of the folks in the International Society are provided with the fellow. It's really a class of membership for a very small percentage, less than 1%. I think only three tenths of a percent of the international memberships are fellows. So it's about sustained and and a high level of productivity in the science.
Speaker 2:So we we give you a round of applause here, Dave. Should we give Jeff a little applause? Anything you wanna say about it, Jeff?
Speaker 3:No. Thanks. It was an honor. It was good to go to the meetings this year and see all the new research that's going on. Lots of stuff about short corn and nitrogen management and cover crops.
Speaker 3:So good to go there and and see the new stuff that's going on by other people and kind of get reinvigorated.
Speaker 2:That's great. And I heard you told me that the corn agronomists are starting to work together a little bit across states and do some things together and getting kind of pulled together. And I, as somebody in the science, in the soybean side of things that we've been starting this, it's really great to see the corn guys are really organizing around this. So it's, I'm excited to see what's gonna come out of that group as well.
Speaker 1:Okay, well congratulations one last time here Jeff, we really appreciate you taking the time to stop by for this podcast. And so this is Dave Nicolai with the University of Minnesota CropCast. I've been your host here along with my cohost Doctor. Seth Nave, University Minnesota Extension soybean specialist and our special guest and award winner here today is Doctor. Jeff Coulter, University Minnesota Extension Corn Specialist.
Speaker 1:Thanks for listening and we'll look forward to talking with you folks next time. Thank you.
